US Scientists Forecast Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
U.S. government scientists said on Thursday they expect a below-normal Atlantic tropical storm season in 2026, likely producing one to three major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (179 kph).
Officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration unveiled the agency’s outlook for the season, which begins on June 1 and runs through November 30.
They predicted eight to 14 named tropical storms with winds of at least 39 mph, from which three to six hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph will likely form.
"Don't let words like below-normal change the way you prepare," said Ken Graham, director of the U.S. National Weather Service. "It only takes one."
Graham advised residents of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts to stock up on non-perishable food, medicines and other emergency supplies such as radios and flashlights.
NOAA FORECAST IN LINE WITH OTHERS
The NOAA outlook is in line with academic and private forecasts issued earlier this year, which expect limited storm formation during the peak of the tropical season between August and October with the formation of a strong El Nino system, which sends strong winds across the southern U.S. that rip apart potential storms.
The National Weather Service sees a 98% chance that an El Nino will form during this year's tropical season.
The average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 produced three major hurricanes out of a total of seven hurricanes among 14 named storms.
"The last time we forecast a below-normal season was 2015," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA. He said there was a 55% chance the season would produce fewer than the average number of storms and hurricanes.
The first storms this season will be named Arthur, Berta, Cesar, Dolly, Edouard and Fay.
(Reuters - Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Erwin Seba in Houston; Editing by Nathan Crooks, Franklin Paul, Rod Nickel)