Climate Prediction Center News

(Photo: NOAA)

Forecasters Expect Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

U.S. forecasters expect an above-normal 13-19 named storms during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 through November 30, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.NOAA forecasters estimate three to six major hurricanes packing winds of at least 111 miles per hour may form. The last two years have seen an above-average number of named storms with 18 last year and 15 in 2018. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.The combination of several

(Image: NOAA)

Near- or Below-normal Hurricane Season Predicted for Central Pacific

There is a 75% chance of near- or below-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service.The outlook also indicates a 25% chance of an above-normal season.For the season as a whole, two to six tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has four or five tropical cyclones.“This year we will

Photo: NOAA

CPC: La Niña Chances at 65-75%

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said La Niña conditions are predicted to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast pegged the chance of La Niña developing at about 65 percent to 75 percent. The agency in its October advisory had projected a 55 percent to 65 percent chance of the phenomenon developing during the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter. "La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States

(Image: NOAA)

Hurricane Season to be Busier than Predicted

range of 2-4), NOAA said. The prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the intial May outlook.   “We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly

Photo: NOAA

'Above-normal' Hurricane Season Forecasted

on Thursday predicted more tropical storms in 2017 than normal for the Atlantic hurricane season, which last year brought one of the deadliest recorded storm systems that killed several hundred people.   Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said there was a 70 percent chance of seeing between 11 and 17 named tropical storms this season, which begins on June 1 and runs for six months.   "There is a potential for a lot of storm activity this year," Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator, said at a press conference

In it's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update, NOAA's National Weather Service indicates there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms. (NOAA)

Atlantic Hurricane Season to be Stronger than Expected

in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.    Gerry added: “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming

Image: NOAA

Forecasters Predict Strong Atlantic Hurricane Season

in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.&rdquo

US Forecaster Sees High Chance of La Nina

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday maintained its projections for the La Nina weather phenomenon to take place in the Northern Hemisphere later this year, as El Nino conditions dissipated.   The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in its monthly forecast La Nina is favored to develop during the summer and pegged the chance of La Nina developing in the fall and winter 2016-17 at 75 percent.   That matched the agency's expectations last month for the likelihood of La Nina.   The CPC also said that El Nino conditions, a

A new study compared sea surface temperatures with endangered Galapagos Penguin population counts and found that the penguin population doubled while waters cooled around their nesting islands. (Courtesy of Snowmanradio/Flickr)

Climate Change Boosts Galapagos Penguin Population

were in the 1980s, compressing the cold pool and possibly leading to a decline in penguins, Karnauskas added.   The new study shows how large-scale changes in the climate can act locally, said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, and not an author on the new paper.   "While it is important that we focus on the big picture with climate change, it's really the small scale that matters to the animals and plants that are impacted," she said

US Weather Forecaster Sees El Nino Forecast Lasting into 2016

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday pegged the chance of El Nino conditions lasting into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16 at 85 percent, extending its outlook for how long the conditions will last.   The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in its monthly report put its outlook of El Nino continuing through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015 at 90 percent.     (Reporting by Chris Prentice; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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